Academician Huang Zhen: Five Major Trends in Energy Transition under Carbon Neutrality Goals
From：
Zhonglin International Group Date：01-25 941 Belong to：Industry Related
Climate change is one of the major challenges facing the world today. Since the first industrial revolution, the discovery and utilization of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas have greatly improved labor productivity, promoted the great prosperity and development of human society, and also caused serious environmental and climate change problems. For over 200 years, the cumulative amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) produced by the combustion of fossil fuels has reached 2.2 trillion tons, and the concentration of CO2 in the global atmosphere continues to rise. Especially in the past half century, the concentration of CO2 has shown a rapid growth trend, with the volume fraction of CO2 in the atmosphere reaching 419 in April 2021 × From 10 to 6, the global average surface temperature has risen by 1.1 ℃. In 2018, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the United Nations released a special report on global warming of 1.5 ℃, which pointed out that the fact of global temperature rise has been observed, and the impact of temperature rise on humans is far higher than early predictions. The impact of a 2 ℃ temperature rise on the world will be difficult to bear, and humans must control the temperature rise at 1.5 ℃. The global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions, mainly CO2, has become a non-traditional global security issue, seriously threatening human survival and sustainable development.
In order to contribute to global ecological civilization and the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind, China announced in September 2020 that it aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The proposal of China's commitment to carbon peak and carbon neutrality not only demonstrates China's responsibility and responsibility as a world power, but also serves as a self-development need to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's energy structure, industrial structure, and economic structure. It is of great strategic significance for China to achieve high-quality development and build a socialist modernized strong country with harmonious coexistence between humans and nature.
Challenges for China to realize carbon peak and carbon neutrality
Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly. In 2019, the total gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded 14 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world; But the per capita GDP has just exceeded $10,000, ranking 67th globally (Figure 2). As the world's largest developing country, China's uneven and insufficient development remains prominent, facing a series of arduous tasks such as developing the economy and improving people's livelihoods; China's energy demand is still increasing, and carbon emissions are still on the rise and have not yet reached their peak. At the same time as economic and social development, how to transform the energy structure, industrial structure, and economic structure to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality is the first major challenge.
In terms of total energy consumption, China ranked first in the world in 2020, accounting for more than 1/4 of the global total, and CO2 emissions accounted for 1/3 of the global total. From the perspective of energy consumption structure, China still mainly consumes fossil fuels, accounting for over 84% in 2020; More than half of China's energy consumption still comes from coal, which is much higher than the proportion of coal in the global energy consumption structure. From the perspective of power generation types in China, 68% of the total power generation in 2020 came from thermal power. According to carbon emission data from different industries in China, power generation and heating (accounting for 51%) and industry (accounting for 28%) are the two largest sources of carbon emissions in China. From the perspective of carbon peak time, major EU countries had already achieved carbon peak before the 1990s, and the United States also achieved carbon peak in 2007. The major EU countries propose to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, with more than 60 years from achieving carbon peak to carbon neutrality; However, due to its late start, China needs less than half of the time compared to major EU countries to achieve the goal of carbon peak (2030) to carbon neutrality (2060). This means that China needs to transform 84% of fossil fuels into a net zero carbon emission energy system in a shorter period of time. The time is tight and the task is heavy, which is the second biggest challenge.
From the social perspective of climate change and greenhouse gas control, China lags behind developed countries in terms of people's willingness, corporate recognition, technological reserves, market mechanisms, laws and regulations, etc. For example, since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, major countries and regions around the world have established regional carbon trading systems to achieve their carbon reduction commitments. From 2005 to 2015, 17 carbon trading systems covering four continents have been established, and China's national carbon emission trading was officially launched in July 2021. China's carbon trading system urgently needs to catch up, which is the third major challenge.
To address the above challenges, China must accelerate the systematic economic and social transformation towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, carry out an energy revolution, and achieve new breakthroughs and leaps in energy supply, consumption, technology, and system.
When it comes to achieving the "dual carbon" goal, a very important indicator is the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According to authoritative data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, it can be said that it has reached the highest level in human history, reaching 419ppm.
In 1751, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 275ppm. Fossil energy has greatly improved labor productivity, but the great prosperity and development of society have also resulted in serious environmental and climate change issues.
In October 2021, the COP26 conference was held in Glasgow, UK, and countries updated their carbon reduction targets. 136 countries announced that they would achieve zero carbon and carbon neutrality around 2035.
In order to contribute to global ecological civilization and the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind, China announced in September 2020 that it aims to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and strive to achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The proposal of China's commitment to carbon peak and carbon neutrality not only demonstrates China's responsibility and responsibility as a world power, but also serves as a self-development need to promote the transformation and upgrading of China's energy structure, industrial structure, and economic structure. It is of great strategic significance for China to achieve high-quality development and build a socialist modernized strong country with harmonious coexistence between humans and nature.
Challenges for China to realize carbon peak and carbon neutrality
Over the past 40 years of reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly. In 2019, the total gross domestic product (GDP) exceeded 14 trillion US dollars, ranking second in the world; But the per capita GDP has just exceeded $10,000, ranking 67th globally (Figure 2). As the world's largest developing country, China's uneven and insufficient development remains prominent, facing a series of arduous tasks such as developing the economy and improving people's livelihoods; China's energy demand is still increasing, and carbon emissions are still on the rise and have not yet reached their peak. At the same time as economic and social development, how to transform the energy structure, industrial structure, and economic structure to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality is the first major challenge.
In terms of total energy consumption, China ranked first in the world in 2020, accounting for more than 1/4 of the global total, and CO2 emissions accounted for 1/3 of the global total. From the perspective of energy consumption structure, China still mainly consumes fossil fuels, accounting for over 84% in 2020; More than half of China's energy consumption still comes from coal, which is much higher than the proportion of coal in the global energy consumption structure. From the perspective of power generation types in China, 68% of the total power generation in 2020 came from thermal power. According to carbon emission data from different industries in China, power generation and heating (accounting for 51%) and industry (accounting for 28%) are the two largest sources of carbon emissions in China. From the perspective of carbon peak time, major EU countries had already achieved carbon peak before the 1990s, and the United States also achieved carbon peak in 2007. The major EU countries propose to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, with more than 60 years from achieving carbon peak to carbon neutrality; However, due to its late start, China needs less than half of the time compared to major EU countries to achieve the goal of carbon peak (2030) to carbon neutrality (2060). This means that China needs to transform 84% of fossil fuels into a net zero carbon emission energy system in a shorter period of time. The time is tight and the task is heavy, which is the second biggest challenge.
From the social perspective of climate change and greenhouse gas control, China lags behind developed countries in terms of people's willingness, corporate recognition, technological reserves, market mechanisms, laws and regulations, etc. For example, since the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, major countries and regions around the world have established regional carbon trading systems to achieve their carbon reduction commitments. From 2005 to 2015, 17 carbon trading systems covering four continents have been established, and China's national carbon emission trading was officially launched in July 2021. China's carbon trading system urgently needs to catch up, which is the third major challenge.
To address the above challenges, China must accelerate the systematic economic and social transformation towards carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, carry out an energy revolution, and achieve new breakthroughs and leaps in energy supply, consumption, technology, and system.
When it comes to achieving the "dual carbon" goal, a very important indicator is the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According to authoritative data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, it can be said that it has reached the highest level in human history, reaching 419ppm.
In 1751, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was 275ppm. Fossil energy has greatly improved labor productivity, but the great prosperity and development of society have also resulted in serious environmental and climate change issues.
In October 2021, the COP26 conference was held in Glasgow, UK, and countries updated their carbon reduction targets. 136 countries announced that they would achieve zero carbon and carbon neutrality around 2035.
