Huang Zhen: the "Breaking Through" & "Taking Roots" of the New Energy System
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Zhonglin International Group Date：04-10 1003 Belong to：Industry Related
The goal of "2060 carbon neutrality" is still 37 years away, and it may seem like there is still a long period of "adjustment". However, in fact, we have entered the "deep water zone" of energy transformation, and some deterministic trends are gradually emerging.
Achieving a fundamental improvement of the ecological environment is the inherent requirement of the Chinese path to modernization in which man and nature coexist in harmony. This year's government work report first proposed to "accelerate the construction of a new energy system", which is an important measure to fundamentally improve environmental quality from the source. Data shows that in the past five years, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China has increased from 650 million kilowatts to over 1.2 billion kilowatts, and the proportion of clean energy consumption has increased from 20.8% to over 25%.
How to further integrate with the carbon market and electricity market when the proportion of new energy consumption continues to expand? What preparations are needed for the construction of a new energy system? How will the new energy system affect industrial development and residents' lives? The CBN will interview Huang Zhen, academician of the CAE Member and president of the Institute of Carbon Neutral Development of Shanghai Jiaotong University.
CBN: As the proportion of green power consumption gradually increases, how to design a corresponding "new power system"?
Huang Zhen: With the increasing installed capacity of renewable energy in China, especially wind power and photovoltaics, it is necessary to develop into a "power system dominated by new energy" in the future. At the same time, there are a large number of users at the user end, so both the supply and user end of energy will generate "double randomness and volatility". Therefore, it is necessary to deeply coordinate and interact with the four elements of "source grid load storage", To ensure the stability of the new power system.
At the source end, when new energy generation is unstable, thermal power, nuclear power, and hydropower should be used to supplement it, and multiple energy sources should complement each other. It is precisely because of the randomness and volatility of new energy that energy storage has become very important, requiring the development of various short-term and long-term energy storage technologies. At the "load" and consumption ends, it is necessary to increase its flexibility, such as developing "interruptible users" - users who can pull electricity by pulling electricity, provided that their electricity prices are cheap enough and cannot be the same as residential electricity prices. There is also the concept of "virtual power plants", which use the software and hardware architecture of virtual power plants to regulate the power supply balance in scenarios such as residential areas and microgrids, in order to maintain the stability and safety of the entire power grid. On the "grid" side, we need to be more informationized, digitized, and intelligent, and develop a stronger smart grid. The new power system constructed through "source network load storage" can maintain the safety and stability of the power grid even as the proportion of renewable energy continues to increase in the future.
The high proportion of renewable energy not only impacts the existing power system, but also places higher demands on China's overall energy system. The report of the 20th National Congress proposes to accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system to ensure energy security. This year's government work report also clearly proposes to accelerate the construction of a new energy system, which means that the construction of the new energy system will accelerate in 2023.
CBN: To accelerate the planning and construction of the new energy system, what are the most urgent issues to be faced and solved at present?
Huang Zhen: What kind of energy system is called a "new energy system"? My understanding is that with new energy as the mainstay, traditional thermal power, coal-fired power, gas power, fossil energy, and nuclear power as a form of guaranteed energy, we must ultimately build a "highly electrified, clean, zero carbon, safe, and efficient energy system.". This energy system has a very significant feature, which is to move from the original energy utilization based on the development of underground fossil energy resources to the development and utilization of new energy based on technological innovation. Therefore, we can accelerate its construction from three aspects:
The first aspect is to first increase the construction of a system of relevant laws and regulations for "dual carbon". At present, for example, there are important laws and regulations such as the Environmental Protection Law of the People's Republic of China and the Energy Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comments). However, when they were formulated, they did not take into account the current "dual carbon" goals and China's goal of addressing climate change, so they have limitations.
Secondly, we need to increase the progress of energy technology and promote it with greater efforts. Reaching carbon peak is only a quantitative process, while achieving carbon neutrality is a qualitative process. I think it is unimaginable to advance the achievement of carbon neutrality goals without revolutionary and disruptive technologies as strategic support. So it requires us to set short-term, medium-term, and long-term goals, strengthen the uation of some green technologies, low-carbon technologies, and zero carbon technologies, build a technology transfer system, and accelerate the transformation and application of those good achievements.
Thirdly, market support is crucial. I think there are two main markets, one is the carbon emission trading market. Currently, our main focus is on the power industry, and during the 14th Five Year Plan period, we plan to promote it to seven other high carbon emitting industries such as chemical, petrochemical, steel, non-ferrous metals, and building materials. The construction of a carbon trading market needs to be accelerated because the carbon market is very important in promoting carbon reduction, as it provides a price signal. The carbon reduction and emission reduction actions of each enterprise, or the reduction of carbon through technological progress, can yield returns in the market. Therefore, through market mechanisms, we can promote the emission reduction of enterprises, promote the research and development, and progress of low-carbon and zero carbon technologies. There is also an energy market, among which the most important is the electricity market. The key is to make electricity prices reflect the degree of electricity scarcity, and promote it through the "invisible hand" of the electricity market. Through electricity system reform, electricity market reform, electricity prices, especially spot markets, etc., price discovery is made, and prices are adjusted to achieve a balance between supply and demand.
CBN: How can electricity prices fully reflect market scarcity in the new energy system? How to balance the interests of relevant parties?
Huang Zhen: We expect that by around 2030, the installed capacity of photovoltaic and wind power in China may reach 1.8 billion kilowatts, and there will be even larger scale development by 2040 and 2050. When new energy is the mainstay and thermal power is the guarantee energy, the power generation time for the guarantee energy will become less and less. Electricity is only generated when there is no electricity or when it is scarce, and the electricity price should be calculated according to the market. Europe regulates its electricity market, and its highest "peak electricity price" and "peak valley electricity price" can differ by more than ten to twenty times, thus balancing the interests of thermal power generation enterprises.
The so-called “market demand” is also related to ordinary people. I think our future electricity prices should be more relaxed, just like a few years ago when we could buy packages for our phones, and you could choose from various packages yourself. For example, if I am a dual worker household and do not use electricity during the day, I only use electricity at night and on weekends. At this time, there is a trough electricity price, so there should be a corresponding electricity price package, which is the cheapest to buy. But on the contrary, another family has elderly people and children at home every day, and they also have to use washing machines and various appliances from day to day, Monday to Friday, so they cannot buy this package. This is also a way to regulate electricity demand through market mechanisms.
In the "14th Five Year Plan" for the development of renewable energy, it mainly mentions areas such as wind power, photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and energy storage. Among them, new energy vehicles and rooftop photovoltaics are closely related to the daily lives of residents.
CBN: In the context of "dual carbon", what is the key to the future development of new energy vehicles?
Huang Zhen: It is important to have a clearer definition. What is new energy? I think it is more appropriate to define it as a "zero carbon emission car". In the future, it should be electric vehicles that use green electricity, rather than coal-fired electric vehicles. Now using hydrogen fuel cells, it must be using green hydrogen fuel cells. Today's diesel and gasoline vehicles, if they were to produce synthetic diesel and gasoline by reducing carbon dioxide through green electricity in the future, we would call it "green oil". In terms of their entire lifecycle, they would have no carbon dioxide emissions, so they should also be promoted.
CBN: Data shows that the number of roofs available in rural areas of China has reached about 50 million, which is a rich resource for new energy (PV power) generation. However, currently, it is still limited to a few regions and mainly relies on financial subsidies for power generation and internet access. Can it be fully commercialized in the future?
Huang Zhen: Distributed PV power generation will definitely be an important direction iin the future, including those to be installed on rooftops. This "roof" can be the roof of a large factory building, with a certain scale, or it can be the roof of a small house or a small farm house, which is the biggest feature of photovoltaics. The roof of rural houses is currently mainly being promoted from the perspective of poverty alleviation and poverty alleviation, and the government has provided some subsidies, which is a good thing. From the perspective of promoting the "dual carbon" goals and building a new energy system, rooftop photovoltaics is an important development trend. In the future, not only will there be millions of roofs, but there should also be millions of roofs, with roofs worth 1 billion or 2 billion, moving upwards. Almost all roofs that can be installed can be installed. This is equivalent to increasing the power generation of renewable energy, while also being able to absorb it on site, minimizing the use of fossil fuels for power generation, and reducing carbon emissions. This type of rooftop photovoltaic, which comes from solar energy, is inexhaustible.
